2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
JANUARY 4, 2021
College Football Metrics| 1
2021 NFL Draft Scouting Report: QB Zach Wilson, BYU
*Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test
results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.
You are going to hate Zach Wilson as a prospect.
A ‘little’ (listed 6’2”-6’3” but is probably closer to 6’0”-6’1”) quarterback who plays at a football school
you don’t respect with no conference affiliation, playing opponents you don’t care about, and he legit
looks like he is 14 years old. He has a very punch-able face – somewhere between a frat boy and choir
boy look.
Well, get used to that face – because I think, at this stage of my studies, that might just be the face of
the best QB prospect in the 2021 NFL Draft.
You are not going to instantly (or ever) agree with this assessment. I know you won’t. I’m having a hard
time coming to grips with it too, in a sense…for some of the same reasons, subconsciously, that you
are/will.
We’ve all been told for two years that Trevor Lawrence is the next elite/’generational’ QB prospect out
of college football. It made perfect sense to think it/buy into it…
-He won the National Championship as a freshman.
-He plays for a prestigious school always on TV and in the playoffs.
-He has the size, the stats, the generally accepted look of a top QB prospect.
-Every football person (analyst, scout, media type…and thus the sheep herd of fans) you know has
agreed that Lawrence is a no-brainer elite QB prospect.
Lawrence as ‘the best QB prospect in history’ is a very simple thing to agree/sign on to with the media
pushing it.
In comparison, Zach Wilson has almost none of those ‘things’ from that list (above).
- He hasn’t even been close to the CFB playoffs.
-He doesn’t play for a prestigious team that’s on TV all the time.
-Wilson is much smaller, physically.
-He does have the stats, but only for one year (2020). Is he a one-year wonder?
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
JANUARY 4, 2021
College Football Metrics| 2
-Every football person is NOT discussing him as THE TOP guy…he’s more of a distrusted
enigma/sleeper/suspect top name. And if there is any groundswell into February or March for Wilson as
the #2 rated QB prospect for the 2021 NFL Draft…it’s going to get shut down quickly/harshly by the
media. Wilson is the kind of QB prospect the NFL establishment will HATE – too small, privileged
background (family has some wealth), religious college. Some analysts see some positives on Wilson and
debate him as the #2 overall prospect/pick today/January 2021, never #1, but my prediction is that they
are going to run from that lofty #2 rating soon.
The blueprint for undermining Wilson will be to parallel him to Johnny Manziel (in his style of
play)…which is not accurate (and shortly I’ll explain why). Trevor Lawrence will draw Peyton Manning,
Andrew Luck, and Justin Herbert comps all process long… you’ll see nothing but puff pieces and NO ONE
will say a bad word about Lawrence from any aspect. However, Wilson will be 100% compared to
Johnny Manziel and they will question his background, strength of competition, size – which is a brilliant
way to erode any confidence in him as this process goes along.
If I had to parallel Wilson to past QB prospects – it would be Kyler Murray, not Manziel. In fact, I’m
going to make my case for Wilson by comparing him to Kyler, Manziel, and Trevor Lawrence.
First things first, I had no idea I would be promoting Wilson as a potential ‘best in class’ when I started
the 2021 scouting process. I assumed that Lawrence would be the easy #1 and Wilson would be a #3-5
ranked QB prospect, potential bust/hoax QB prospect propped up by ‘BYU’ and its schedule – that was
the early/easy narrative to assume.
When I put on the first game tape, I saw Wilson standing there prior to the first snap of his I was about
to witness, I instantly knew my preconceived negative notion of Wilson was correct. Who is the little guy
and why does anyone think he’s an NFL prospect?
So I started watching Wilson play/throw, and a few passes into a long day of tape scheduled -- I
thought…OK, I see he’s not that bad. He can sling it a little bit. Then as the tape studies wore on, every
other throw I’d watch, I’d go (to myself)…wow, that was a great throw…wow, that was a smart
throw…wow, how did he see that receiver and get it to him? When I got to the second game tape and
saw more of the same ‘wows’ I started to get the feeling that just maybe, my first/preconceived notion
was way off. Maybe this guy is really talented.
After I saw that Wilson was really pretty good right off the bat…I then started looking for evidence to
prove my newfound respect wrong…combing over his toughest games – 2019 v. Washington, 2019 v.
San Diego State (the #2 defense in CFB that season), v. Boise State 2020, v. San Diego State 2020 (the
#11 defense in CFB), v. highly ranked Coastal Carolina 2020. The more I watched, the more I knew – this
guy is a real prospect/player. He’s not rattled easily. He has an arm that makes every throw with ease
without having to have a perfect pocket or footwork setup. He is willing to run (and has pretty good
feet) as he needs to.
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
JANUARY 4, 2021
College Football Metrics| 3
Wilson instantly reminded me of Kyler Murray…both smaller in height, but great/strong+ arms with the
key ingredient – they have an uncanny, elite level of seeing the field and quick releasing laser beam
throws right to the open man, in stride, in the proper space…almost like they have a homing device in
the football to be delivered to the receiver. Also, Wilson is pretty fleet of foot…he scrambles out of
muddy pockets and can scoot out into the open field and make yards as needed.
That’s a topside comparison…drilling down more on Kyler v. Wilson, I’d say Wilson is a lesser version of
Kyler in most senses. Kyler has a little stronger arm. Kyler is probably a 4.4+ runner, where Wilson is a
4.5-4.6+ runner…and Kyler willing to run more, Wilson preferring to sling it more. Kyler is built
thick/stout and Wilson is more thin framed, with smaller shoulders.
Where Wilson has an edge or is even with Kyler is – Wilson might see the field as well as Kyler, and rare
few see the field and can deliver it like Kyler -- Wilson has that same ability. Wilson might be a bit more
confident in his throwing ability and uses all his receivers more than Kyler, who tends to lean on one
option more. In the end, it’s close as to which QB has the better mind/vision/throwing downfield on
these things. Wilson also has better mechanics and delivery but both guys get the ball out lightning
quick and on target…a lot.
Zach Wilson is a really good quarterback. He sees the field brilliantly and has that quick trigger. He’s
highly accurate – 73.4% Comp. Pct. in 2020, with just 3 interceptions in 335 passes. That’s a stunning run
at BYU. And he’s highly productive…308.3 passing yards per game, nearly 3 passing TDs per game…43
total TDs (33 passing, 10 rushing), 3.6 total TDs per game in 2020. Working with ‘weapons’ and O-
Linemen who will likely never see the NFL in any meaningful way.
I thought/worried, early on in my watching/studying, that Wilson had an extra advantage of great
pockets/time to throw (and he did somewhat/sometimes) – but when I watched him against
Washington (2019) and against San Diego State (2019-2020) and against a very good Coastal Carolina
(2020) team…I saw that same guy throwing bullets under duress. And Wilson isn’t a dink-and-dunker,
he’s a thrower all over the field. He’s a QB weapon that dissects the defense, and he can ‘make all the
throws’.
I compare Wilson to Kyler. The analysts are comparing him to Johnny Manziel. I understand why…both
shorter/smaller in stature but highly productive in college and they had a knack for scrambling, running
around to make plays great outside the pocket plays as needed.
I get the Manziel comparison, but I don’t agree with it. I thought Manziel was an NFL fraud because he
could not throw medium and deep with any accuracy. He was gifted at dink-and-dunk/bubble screen
passing games and the moment his first option was taken away he’d run around and make plays that
way or just heave deeper passes praying teammate Mike Evans could beat double or triple coverage
(which Evans did, a lot). Manziel could make some things happen, but in a traditional offense he was lost
– he couldn’t play pocket QB and was too small to be a Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts type QB. Not to
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
JANUARY 4, 2021
College Football Metrics| 4
mention Manziel was an awful human being…whereas Wilson appears to be mostly a polite saint of a
person. Wilson is far superior as a traditional passer compared to Manziel – it’s not even debatable.
Speaking of not comfortable downfield passers who like to run at the first sign of trouble – Wilson, to
me, is a better NFL quarterback talent/passer than Trevor Lawrence. If you read my scouting report on
Lawrence, he’s actually more Johnny Manziel (in the passing game) than Wilson is. Lawrence is a dink-
and-dunker by nature and not a great/comfortable pocket passer/reader of defenses.
I’ll tell you this, as a way to really cut to the heart of the matter -- if I had my team sitting 4th & 7 from
midfield in a key spot late in a game, and we absolutely needed that 1st-down or game over…I’d want
Wilson to be my quarterback at that moment…10 times out of 10. If it was 4th & 1…maybe I’d take
Lawrence’s size and ability to run it/push a pile, but if I needed to throw for something…I’d want Wilson,
no hesitation. I never thought I’d say/write/think such a thing…but here we are.
There is a downside or risk with Wilson. It’s not a clean path to ‘obvious’ top QB prospect-land. My risk
notes…
1) He does not have an NFL body…and that’s a big fear. How do you assess that? If I needed 4th & 7 to
be converted – it’s Wilson, all day. If I were betting which QB gets hurt first at the pro level…it would
also be Wilson. Broken hand in 2019, surgery. Shoulder issues, surgery 2019. Nothing debilitating, but
issues.
And it’s not so much the injury history, it’s just looking at him – 6’0” nothing…200+ pounds…small
frame, small shoulders…hell of a passer. Go look at some 2020 game tape…he just doesn’t ‘look’ the way
we want our QB prospects to look. You want Lawrence’s body with Wilson’s arm/ability…you want that
but it’s not available in this draft (yet, that I see). I’m describing Justin Herbert (Lawrence body/Wilson
arm-mind)…not describing Joe Burrow (differently gifted than Herbert, and with a lesser frame/body),
not Jalen Hurts, not Trevor Lawrence, not Zach Wilson. You don’t ‘get it all’ in one neat package with
Lawrence or Wilson.
But remember, Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray were opposed by football people on the grounds of
‘size’, as was Gardner Minshew…as were Russell Wilson and Drew Brees. The height of a QB is so
played out as a real issue, but the mainstream is still sticking by it…and our eyes do too. We have that
deep embedded distrust of smaller QBs. Our eyes are pulled towards a Justin Herbert…or Trevor
Lawrence ‘look’. But we’re just not getting one of these wonderfully designed QB creatures who are
great passers on top of their body advantage this year, most likely.
2) Zach Wilson has talent, but does he have enough chip on his shoulder to succeed? He has led a
perfect, privileged life up until now. How badly does he really want this? It is a question for
speculation/research. The best QBs in the NFL are usually ones who were bet against or overlooked or
come from the Midwest/cold grinding situations. Wilson has had the furthest from a hardscrabble
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
JANUARY 4, 2021
College Football Metrics| 5
life…will that take an edge off him? It doesn’t seem to have been an issue in college, but it will be
debated all pre-Draft.
With that…can Wilson lead a locker room or a franchise? It’s not going to be easy for him. Again, he has
a very punch-able face/upbringing. How is he going to inspire inner city or Midwest grinder players who
could physically crush him like an empty can of soda? Baker has a leadership swagger. Kyler Murray
does not. In a different way, Wilson does not have that ‘leader look’ at first blush…somewhat through
no fault of his own.
3) Because Wilson has so many ‘negatives’ having nothing to do with his play…he’s an easy target for the
media. They are going to undermine him right away…some 14-year-old looking, lily white, privileged kid
from Utah with a strong family bond who had all the advantages coming up through the ranks of
football. He’s going to have to really work to overcome perceptions – a daunting task. The media will
turn the fans/people against him initially (I think)…and then constantly badger him in his NFL career. I
can feel it/sense it.
So, what GM wants to step up and draft Zach Wilson? Who wants to rate him top dog QB in the class?
An excellent talent (Wilson) who the entire media is going to be against as much as they are FOR Trevor
Lawrence – so who wants to stand with the outsider guy (Wilson)? Who wants to run with a 6’0”, injury
concern, silver spoon, Johnny Manziel label QB prospect as a top guy?
I’m not sure I do.
I can only tell you, beyond a shadow of a doubt – he’s a better passing game prospect/talent than
Trevor Lawrence, and it’s not even close. What you do with that from here is your business.
Zach Wilson, Through the Lens of Our QB Scouting Algorithm:
You can see that, statistically, Wilson is right there in every category with this group…only more
accurate/efficient. The other difference is…the other guys either won a Heisman or got close. Wilson
was barely in the Heisman picture. Why? For the same reasons not many will believe he’s ‘really’ a
potential top prospect for the 2021 NFL Draft – we don’t like or believe in small/tiny, BYU/Midwest
Conference/WAC quarterbacks who aren’t on TV all the time.
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
JANUARY 4, 2021
College Football Metrics| 6
Wilson had four games against top 50 CFB defenses in 2020. Against them, Wilson averaged a very nice
output tally of:
291.5 pass yards, 2.25 TDs/0.25 INTs, 69% Comp Pct., 0.75 rushing TDs per game.
I didn’t even mention, yet…BYU was (11-1) this season. They played a game against a then
undefeated/top 10 ranked Coastal Carolina (at C. Carolina) near the end of the season…a battle of
undefeateds at the time…and Wilson was down 22-17 and he led a last-minute drive all the way down
the field and hit a receiver 1-yard shy of the end zone with time elapsed, and the receiver was tackled
inches short lunging for the end zone…ball game. A near win, which could’ve led to a possible
opportunity for a CFB playoff spot. Only possible because of Wilson, nothing else on BYU was worthy of
top ranking…it was Wilson putting a team on his back.
Zach Wilson is no joke.
*Oh, and I don’t watch College Football during the season but then watch A LOT of it prepping for
scouting/the NFL Draft…how Coastal Carolina was not a top 4 team that got a CFB playoff invite is a
typical ‘big media’ and ‘big college’ screw job – they would have been a team to reckon with. To my
surprise watching them so far, that was a really good team.
I mention this to note…Wilson played some decent competition too – it’s just that the football world is
biased/blind to it (being hidden from us, which is now typical in this decade of information suppression to
benefit the ‘big’/powerful/elite. You’re better to ‘serve’ Alabama and Clemson and Ohio State…there’s
nothing to gain from the media helping tiny, broke-ass Coastal Carolina. But just know this Coastal
Carolina game/tape was a ‘tough’ matchup, good backdrop to scout Wilson in. Off my soapbox now, my
bad).
The Historical QB Prospects to Whom Zach Wilson Most Compares Within Our System:
The Kyler Murray comp, we already discussed. I thought of it before I had seen that our computer
models had. The Baker Mayfield and Russell Wilson comps also make sense to me – the football world
had instant/loud fears on both that their size would be their downfall in the NFL.
People did not respect Baker’s or Kyler’s college output as ‘telling’/projecting for the NFL because they
played in a ‘gimmicky’ offense that gave them stats. The same will be said about Zach Wilson, I’m
sure…and even worse. Which makes me laugh, since it is Trevor Lawrence, if anyone, given stats by his
offense.
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
JANUARY 4, 2021
College Football Metrics| 7
The John Wolford comp scares me too, because after Kyler came to my mind watching Wilson
tape…Wolford popped into my head too, but that’s more a physical comp. In arm ability, it’s not even
close with a Wolford comp…Wilson is much more arm talented.
*’LJax rating’ – new for 2021, as we re-do our grading systems to better identify/reward the spread
offense QB prospects…looking for the runner-passer talents.
**“Adj” = A view of adjusted college output in our system…adjusted for strength of opponent.
***A score of 8.5+ is where we see a stronger correlation of QBs going on to become NFL good-to-
great. A scouting score of 9.5+ is rarefied air—higher potential for becoming great-to-elite.
QBs scoring 6.0–8.0 are finding more success in the new passing era of the NFL (2014–on). Depending
upon the system and surrounding weapons, a 6.0–8.0 rated QB can do fine in today’s NFL—with the
right circumstances…but they are not ‘the next Tom Brady’ guys, just NFL-useful guys.
2021 NFL Draft Outlook:
I see ratings on Wilson as high as the #2 pick in the draft all the way to 2nd-round…as of early January.
My bet would be, Wilson takes a number of media hits to his prospect status as we go – he’ll have
everything negative thrown at him, especially when he measures in at 6’0”/6’1” and/or closer to 200
pounds -- and he will slide down draft boards because of it.
The draft board/mock draft slide will then cause some ‘smart’ team, picking later in the draft, to be in a
position to make a great move – if you see the 49ers or Patriots trading to the late 1st-round and making
this pick (or just pulling the trigger where they are at/middle 1st-round)…it should be a warning that the
smarter teams are looking past the noise. In fact, I think the smart teams are going to fan the flames on
QB-
Grade
LJax
Rating
Last
First
Yr
College
H
W
Adj
Comp
Pct
Adj
Yds per
Comp
Adj
Pass
per TD
Adj
Pass
Per INT
8.348
6.08
Wilson
Zach
2021
BYU
73.0
210
71.3%
14.1
13.6
90.7
8.945
9.05
Murray
Kyler
2019
Oklahoma
71.1
207
68.3%
16.4
10.2
72.5
8.895
1.28
Mayfield
Baker
2018
Oklahoma
73.0
215
70.6%
15.5
11.2
58.4
10.306
6.83
Wilson
Russell
2012
Wisconsin
70.6
210
70.3%
13.4
10.4
38.9
5.660
5.89
Wolford
John
2018
Wake Forest
72.0
200
66.0%
12.8
14.3
53.5
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
JANUARY 4, 2021
College Football Metrics| 8
negative stories and scouting on Wilson – they want him to fall to them. They don’t want any positive
scouting on Wilson to drive him into the top 5-10.
Wilson should be a top 5-10 pick, and some will swear he is…but I think they’ll be drowned out by the
‘questions’ and ‘concerns’ drumbeat to come.
NFL Outlook:
Risk-Reward…
Risk: You get a ‘too small’ guy who cannot physically hold up in the NFL…and he never fully becomes a
franchise QB, as the fans (gassed by the media) complain about it all the way from the draft to every
incompletion he throws. This is a real risk/fear…and why we can’t push his prospect grade higher – his
physical frame, what we know of it now, is a concern…which leads to the concern that it will become a
global concern that haunts him in the draft and going into his NFL career. I hope it’s not so.
Reward: Almost all the ‘too small’ noise that always gets hung on top 25-50 overall prospects, who are
QBs, ends up being meaningless – which means it’s more likely Wilson goes on to be just fine, physically,
and is arguably the best QB prospect of his class.
Even if he is the best of 2021, I like him…but he is NOT as good, glamorous or fruitful as the top guys
from the past class or two.
I still have many more QB studies to conduct, but it’s very possible Wilson is the best of 2021, just not
quite as good/exciting the top QB prospects from 2017-18-19-20.
2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT
JANUARY 4, 2021
College Football Metrics| 9
Copyright Statement
Copyright at date and time signed below by R.C. Fischer
All rights reserved. All content is for entertainment purposes only and TFA is not responsible or liable for personal adverse
outcomes nor are any game results or forecasting guaranteed. Past results do not predict future outcomes. We are not held
liable for any personal loses incurred. We are solely here to produce and provide content for recreational purposes. No part of
this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying,
recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case
of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For
Signature__________________________________________ Date_____________________
1/4/2021
