GHG PROTOCOL
MITIGATION GOAL STANDARD
AN ACCOUNTING AND REPORTING STANDARD FOR
NATIONAL AND SUBNATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS
REDUCTION GOALS
• 450+ staff
• Issue areas:
– Climate
– Energy
– Food
– Forests
– Water
– Sustainable cities
About WRI
• The GHG Protocol sets the global standard
for how to measure, manage, and report
greenhouse gas emissions
• Convened in 1998 by WRI and WBCSD
• Provides:
– Greenhouse gas accounting and
reporting standards
– Sector guidance
– Calculation tools
– Trainings (webinar, e-learning and in-
person training)
• Standards and tools available free of charge
at www.ghgprotocol.org
About the Greenhouse Gas Protocol
Greenhouse Gas Protocol standards
Corporate Standard
Project Protocol
Product Standard
Corporate Value Chain
(Scope 3) Standard
Mitigation Goal
Standard
Policy and Action
Standard
Global Protocol for
Cities (GPC)
Relationship of different standards
New standards
How to estimate the
greenhouse gas effects of
policies and actions
How to assess progress toward
national or subnational GHG
emissions reduction goals
New standards can help answer:
• Are countries on track to meet their
climate commitments?
• How effective are local or national
policies to drive emissions
reductions?
• Will countries’ actions add up to
limit warming to under 2 degrees
Celsius?
Source for carbon budget: IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
Need for new standards
• New diversity of national and subnational GHG reduction
goals (e.g., INDCs)
• New needs for estimating GHG effects of policies and
actions (e.g., NAMAs)
• Lack of consistency and transparency in current
approaches
• Lack of capacity
• No international guidelines until now
Standard development process
Secretariat (WRI)
Advisory Committee (30)
Technical Working Groups (80)
Review Group (130)
Pilot Testers (30)
• 270 participants in 40 countries; three year process
Pilot testing: 32 policies/goals in 20 countries/cities
US
Mexico
Costa Rica
Colombia
Chile South Africa
Indonesia
Japan
South Korea
China
India
Bangladesh
Tunisia
UK Belgium
Germany
Israel
Chapter 1 Introduction
• Guide users in answering the following questions:
– For jurisdictions that do not have a mitigation goal:
Which factors to consider when designing a mitigation
goal
– Before the goal period: How to calculate allowable
emissions in the target year or period
– During the goal period: How to assess and report
progress
– After the goal period: How to assess and report goal
achievement
Why use this standard?
• To help national and subnational governments design and
implement mitigation goals that make a transparent and
meaningful contribution to effective global GHG mitigation
• To help users assess progress toward mitigation goals
• To help policymakers and other decision makers develop
effective strategies for managing and reducing GHG
emissions
How this standard may be useful
• To support consistent and transparent public reporting of
mitigation goal design choices and progress toward goal
achievement
• To support national governments in meeting international
reporting obligations
• To create more international consistency and
transparency in the way jurisdictions design and assess
progress toward mitigation goals
How this standard may be useful (cont.)
Who may want to use the standard?
• Governments (subnational, national)
• Research institutions
• NGOs
• Companies
Before the goal
period: What factors
to consider when
designing a goal and
how to calculate
allowable emissions
in the target year
During the goal
period: How to
assess and report
progress
After the goal
period: How to
assess and report
goal achievement
When the standard can be used
• Voluntary
• All countries and regions
• Economy-wide mitigation
goals and sectoral goals
• Variety of goal types
What does the standard apply to?
Placeholder for picture
Chapter 4 Designing a mitigation goal
• To identify mitigation opportunities
• To track changes during the goal period
• Methodologies to use:
– National jurisdictions: most up-to-date IPCC guidance and
guidelines agreed under the UNFCCC
– Subnational jurisdictions: internationally accepted methods, e.g.
Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission
Inventories (GPC), in addition to relevant IPCC methods
• Global Warming Potentials (GWP):
– IPCC values based on a 100-year horizon
• As agreed under the UNFCCC, or
• The most recent values published by the IPCC
Preparation: Developing a GHG inventory
Example Mexico: understanding future trends
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
MEXICO 2006
Energy sector
other
LULUCF
Agriculture
Waste
Manufacturing
Industrial
processes
Transport
Energy industry
Largest source of emissions is the
energy sector
Largest growth of emissions is
expected in the transport sector
Sources: Mexico’s GHG inventory 2006 (left), UNFCCC GHG data by Party;
Projected BAU emissions per sector, Mexico’s fifth National Communication,
page 253
• To inform the design of the goal, users should consider global
mitigation needs
• Recent findings from climate science, such as IPCC reports,
can help understand the magnitude of emission reductions
needed
Preparation: Assess mitigation needs
• Starts with understanding the GHG inventory and the
contribution of each sector and gas
• Needs to take into account expected future development
• Assessment methods should provide an indication of:
– The magnitude of available reduction opportunities
– Potential cost of each opportunity
– Potential benefits of each opportunity
Preparation: Assess mitigation opportunities
Choose geographic coverage
• Define which geographic area the mitigation goal covers:
– At the national level
– At a regional level
– For one or more cities
National
Regional
City
Choose and define sectors to be included
• The most comprehensive approach is to include all IPCC sectors
in the goal boundary
• High emitting sectors should be included to increase mitigation
opportunities
• Sector definition for the goal should be consistent with the GHG
inventory
• Sectoral goals may be adopted as a way to focus mitigation
efforts and resources on a high emitting sector
Choose treatment of the land sector
The land sector is treated separately because of the significance of
natural-disturbance-related emissions and legacy effects.
Four options:
• Include in the goal boundary: The land sector is included in the
goal boundary, like other sectors.
• Sectoral goal: A sectoral goal for the land sector is separately
designed and assessed, apart from any other mitigation goals a
jurisdiction may have.
• Offset: The land sector is not included in the goal boundary.
Instead, net land sector emissions added to emissions from sectors
included in the goal boundary.
• Do not account for the land sector: The land sector is not
included in the goal boundary.
Choose coverage of in-jurisdiction and out-of jurisdiction
Definition
• In-jurisdiction emissions are emissions from sources located
within a jurisdiction’s boundary.
• Out-of-jurisdiction emissions are emissions from sources located
outside of a jurisdiction’s boundary that occur as a consequence of
activities within that boundary.
Treatment
• Users in national jurisdictions that choose to set a goal for out-of-
jurisdiction emissions shall define separate goals for in-jurisdiction
and out-of-jurisdiction emissions.
• Users in subnational jurisdictions shall report whether the goal
covers out-of-jurisdiction emissions and, if so, which out-of-
jurisdiction emissions are included and excluded.
Select GHGs covered
• Recommended comprehensive coverage of 7 Kyoto greenhouse
gases
– Carbon dioxide (CO
2
)
– Methane (CH
4
)
– Nitrous oxide (N
2
O)
– Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
– Perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
– Sulfur hexafluoride (SF
6
)
– Nitrogen triflouride (NF
3
)
• Users may include fewer greenhouse gases depending on
objectives, data quality, mitigation opportunities, and capacity.
Choose mitigation goal type
• The standard is primarily designed to support four goal types
Example of a base year emissions goal
Example of a fixed-level goal
Example of a base year intensity goal
Example of a baseline scenario goal
Example of static versus dynamic baseline scenarios
• Emission reductions to be
achieved by policies, actions,
or projects
• Baseline scenario goals framed
in terms of emission
reductions to be achieved by
policies, actions or projects
• Non-GHG goals
Some parts of the Mitigation Goal
Standard are useful. Also see the
Policy and Action Standard for
further guidance.
Other goal types
Placeholder for picture
• Choose a single year of historical data (base year) or an average of
historical data over multiple years (base period)
• Choose a base year or base period for which representative,
reliable, and verifiable emissions data are available to enable
comprehensive and consistent tracking of emissions over time
Choose base year
• Single-year targets are more vulnerable to inter-annual fluctuations
• Emissions can increase during the goal period and then be reduced
only shortly before the target year larger amount of cumulative
emissions
Single year goals
• Fluctuations in
emissions can
pose challenges
to meeting a
single-year goal
• Commitment to reduce, or control the increase of, annual emissions
(or emissions intensity) by an average amount over a target period
• Adopting multi-year goals will have a better chance of limiting
cumulative emissions over the goal period
Average multi-year goals
• Commitment to reduce, or control the increase of, annual emissions
(or emissions intensity) by a specific amount each year over a
target period
Annual multi-year goals
• It is likely that
multi-year goals will
lead to transformed
emissions pathways
in which emissions
continue to be
reduced after the
goal period
• Commitment to reduce, or control the increase of, cumulative
emissions over a target period to a fixed absolute quantity
• Cumulative multi-year goals are often referred to as “carbon
budgets.”
Cumulative multi-year goals
• Annual or average
multi-year goals can
also be converted to
cumulative multi-
year goals
• Average and
cumulative multi-
year goals offer
more flexibility
• Long-term goal of reducing emissions by at least 80 percent
below 1990 levels by 2050
• Individual carbon budgets for intermediate periods with
growing stringency
Example: UK’s fixed-level, cumulative multi-year goals
• Choose a single year (target year) or a multi-year period (target
period) for the goal
• Choose:
– Short-term goals
– Long-term goals
– A combination of both
• The most robust approach is to set a combination of short- and
long-term goals that are consistent with an emissions trajectory that
phases out greenhouse gas emissions in the long-term
• In particular, users that choose a single-year goal should consider
adopting a series of single-year goals for different timeframes
Choose target year or target period
• A goal may be achieved using any combination of emission reductions from
within the goal boundary (domestic reductions) and transferable emissions
units generated outside of the goal boundary
Decide on use of transferable emissions units
– Emissions allowances from emissions trading programs
– Offset credits generated from outside of the goal boundary
• if a jurisdiction is expected to be a net seller of emissions
units in the target year or period, the jurisdiction will need
to plan for greater domestic emission reductions to
achieve the goal.
• Understanding the quantity of units that are expected to
be sold can help policymakers design mitigation strategies
for any additional emission reductions needed to achieve
the goal.
If selling units
• Real: Emission reductions or removals represent actual emission
reductions and are not artifacts of inaccurate or incomplete accounting.
• Additional: Emission reductions or removals are beyond what would
have happened in the absence of the incentive provided by the offset
credit program or project.
• Permanent: Emission reductions or removals are irreversible or if
sourced from projects subject to potential reversal have guarantees to
ensure that any losses are compensated for.
• Transparent: Offset credits are publicly and transparently registered
with unique serial numbers to clearly document offset credit generation,
transfer, retirement, cancellation, and ownership.
Criteria for use of offset units
• Verified: Offset credits have been appropriately validated and verified to
a standard that ensures reproducible results by an independent third
party that is subject to a viable and trustworthy accreditation system.
• Owned unambiguously: Ownership of GHG reductions or removals is
clear by contractual assignment and/or government recognition of
ownership rights. Transfer of ownership of offset credits must be
unambiguous and documented.
• Addresses leakage: Emission reductions or removals are generated so
as to address leakage.
Criteria for use of offset units (cont’d)
• Rigorous monitoring and verification protocols: Allowances
are generated based on robust methods for measuring emissions
that ensure the quality and comparability of underlying emissions
data.
• Transparent tracking and reporting of units: Allowances are
publicly and transparently registered to clearly document their
generation, transfer, and ownership. Emissions trading programs
are transparent regarding rules and procedures for monitoring,
reporting, and verification, as well as compliance and
enforcement.
• Stringent caps: Emissions trading programs have stringent caps
that limit the amount of emissions in a given time period to a
level lower than would be expected in a business-as-usual
scenario.
Criteria for use of allowances from emissions trading
• Double claiming occurs when a single transferable
emissions unit is claimed by two different jurisdictions and
applied toward the mitigation goal of both
• Double selling occurs when a single unit is sold twice
• Double issuance occurs when more than one transferable
emissions unit is generated for one unit of emission
reduction
Types of double counting
• A registry that lists the quantity, status (canceled, retired, or
banked), ownership, location and origin of transferable emissions
units held by a jurisdiction
• A transaction log that records the details of each transaction
between registry accounts, including the issuance, holding,
transfer, and acquisition of transferable emissions units
• Agreements between buyers and sellers that specify which party
has the exclusive right to claim each unit and specifies what
percentage, if any, is shared
• Legal mandates that disallow double counting and employ
penalty and enforcement systems
• Information sharing to identify units that are already
registered in other programs
Mechanisms to prevent double counting
Users should define an ambitious
goal level that:
• Substantially reduces emissions
below the jurisdiction’s business-
as-usual emissions trajectory
• Corresponds to an emissions
trajectory that is in line with the
level of emissions reductions
necessary to avoid dangerous
climate change impacts, as
determined by the most recent
climate science.
Define the goal level
• Choice of goal type:
Base year emissions goals and fixed-level goals are
• simpler to account for,
• more certain, and
• more transparent
Users seeking to accommodate short-term emissions increases
should consider adopting base year emissions goals or fixed-level
goals that are framed as a controlled increase in emissions from
a base year.
Static baseline scenario goals provide more certainty and
transparency regarding intended future emissions levels than
dynamic baseline scenario goals.
Key considerations for goal design
• Choice of goal timeframe:
– Multi-year goals have a better chance of limiting cumulative
emissions over the goal period than single-year goals
– Adopting a combination of short-term and long-term goals
provides more clarity for long-term planning and better
ensures a decreasing emissions pathway.
Key considerations for robust goals (cont’d)
• Use of transferable emissions units: Ensuring that any
transferable emissions units applied toward a goal
– Meet the highest quality principles
– Are generated in the target year or period
– Include mechanisms for tracking units to double counting
• Choice of goal level: The goal level should
– Significantly reduce emissions below the jurisdiction’s business-
as-usual emissions trajectory
– Correspond to an emissions trajectory that is in line with
emissions reductions necessary to avoid dangerous climate
change, as determined by the most recent climate science.
Key considerations for robust goals (cont’d)
Chapter 5 Estimating base year / baseline scenario
emissions
• Develop and report a complete inventory for the base year
or base period
• Aggregate emissions from the GHG inventory for all gases
and sectors that are included in the goal boundary,
including out-of-jurisdiction emissions, if relevant
• For base periods: calculate the average annual emissions
level over the base period
Calculate base year / base period emissions
• Divide base year emissions by the level of output in the
base year
• Data for the level of output should be reliable, verifiable,
and gathered from official sources
• Report the level of output in the base year, and data
sources used
Calculating base year emissions intensity
Estimating baseline scenario emissions:
Choose emissions projection model
• The choice of model typically reflects a tradeoff among
several factors, including:
– available resources, including financial resources and
technical expertise;
– data availability;
– model performance, including level of sophistication and
suitability for jurisdiction;
– software costs;
– alignment with other models being used by the
jurisdiction;
– the expected use of the model outputs
Identify emissions drivers
• Economic activity (for example, GDP and sectoral composition of
GDP)
• Structural changes in economic sectors (e.g., shifts from
manufacturing to service sector jobs, shifts of industrial production
between countries)
• Energy prices by fuel type
• Energy supply and demand by fuel type
• Emissions intensity by fuel type
• Population and degree of urbanization
• Technological development
• Land-use practices
Defining assumptions using published data
• Existing data sources of sufficient quality may be available to define
assumptions for emissions drivers:
– peer-reviewed scientific literature,
– government statistics,
– reports published by international institutions (such as IEA,
IPCC, IMF, World Bank, UN, etc.),
– national, regional, state, city, or sector-level sources specific to
the jurisdiction, and
– economic and engineering analyses and models
Identify policies and actions to include
• Emissions will be affected by policies and actions implemented in
the jurisdiction
• This includes policies and actions designed to reduce emissions as
well as those designed to meet other objectives
• Which policies are included in the baseline scenario and the
assumptions made about their likely effects on emissions can have a
significant effect on resulting baseline scenario emissions
• Users should include all policies and actions that:
(1) have a significant effect on GHG emissions, either increasing or
decreasing them, and
(2) are implemented or adopted in the year the baseline scenario is
developed
Example: Chile’s national baseline emissions
Develop a range of plausible scenarios
• A range of baseline scenarios reflects the upper and lower bounds of
plausible emissions trajectories associated with a range of assumptions
• Out of the range choose and report a single baseline scenario against
which to set the goal and track progress
Example: Chile’s national baseline emissions
Chapter 6 Accounting for the land sector
Selecting and reporting the accounting method
• Choose accounting method:
– Land-based accounting assesses net emissions (emissions +
removals) of select land-use categories,
– Activity-based accounting assesses net emissions of select
land-use activities
Land-based accounting
• Determines the scope of accounting based on six land-use
categories:
– Forestland
– Cropland
– Grassland
– Wetland
– Settlement
– Other
• Accounting should cover all lands within the category of
interest
Activity-based accounting
• Bases the accounting on a predetermined set of land-use
practices
• The aim is to limit accounting to those lands subject to direct
human influence and thereby exclude non-anthropogenic fluxes
• All anthropogenic activities that result in changes in carbon pools
or fluxes and emissions resulting from land-use change activities
should be included
• Land sector accounting methods are used to assess changes in
net emissions (emissions + removals) within each land-use
category or activity
• There are three land sector accounting methods:
(1) relative to a base year/period emissions (also known as net-
net),
(2) without reference to base year/period or baseline scenario
emissions (also known as gross-net);
(3) forward-looking baseline
Choose the accounting method
Accounting relative to base period emissions
Accounting without reference
Forward-looking baseline accounting
• Base year emissions goal: Account relative to base year/period
emissions (also known as net-net accounting)
• Fixed-level goal: Account in the target year/period, without
reference to base year/period or baseline scenario emissions
(also known as gross-net accounting)
• Base year intensity goal: Account for emissions intensity relative
to a base year/period (also known as net-net accounting)
• Baseline scenario goal: Use forward-looking baseline accounting
method
Recommended approach
Chapter 7 Calculate allowable emissions
• Allowable emissions represent the maximum quantity of
emissions that may be emitted in the target year or target period
that is consistent with achieving the mitigation goal
• Calculating allowable emissions provides users with critical
information for
– Decision making,
– Designing mitigation strategies,
– Assessing progress during the goal period, and
– Assessing goal achievement
Calculating allowable emissions
Example of allowable emissions for a base year goal
Example of allowable emissions for a baseline goal
Equations for calculating allowable emissions
Equation for calculating allowable emission intensity
Setting milestones: Example along a linear emissions path
Chapter 8 Assessing progress
• The frequency of assessment depends on:
– stated objectives,
– policy-making needs,
– data availability,
– cost, capacity, and
– stakeholder demand
• If feasible, progress should be reported on an annual basis
• The same frequency should be used throughout the goal period
Choose frequency of assessment
Assessing progress
• There may be a time lag between the GHG inventory year and the
year in which the inventory is actually published
• Official statistics for the unit of output may not be immediately
available
A complete assessment will need to be based on a published
inventory and official statistics
Develop GHG inventory for reporting year
Calculate reporting year emission intensity
• What to recalculate:
1. Base year emissions, base year emissions intensity, or
baseline scenario emissions;
2. Allowable emissions or emissions intensity; and/or
3. Reporting year emissions
• Why:
1. Due to methodological changes
2. Due to changes in emissions drivers (dynamic baseline
scenarios)
3. Due to changes to the goal itself
Recalculate emissions (if relevant)
Calculate change in emissions
Calculate additional reductions needed to achieve the goal
Example: Assessing progress toward South Africa’s mining
sector goal
Example: Tracking progress towards Israel’s goal
• Develop an informational baseline scenario that includes all
implemented and adopted policies and uses the reporting year as
the start year
• Compare baseline scenario emissions in the target year(s) to
allowable emissions
Assess whether the jurisdiction is on track to achieve the goal
Example: New York City’s progress toward meeting its goal
Chapter 9 Assessing goal achievement
Calculate target year/period emissions
• Develop a complete GHG inventory for the target year(s) or period
• Aggregate emissions from the GHG inventory for all gases and
sectors that are included in the goal boundary, including out-of-
jurisdiction emissions, if relevant
A complete assessment will need to be based on a published
inventory and official statistics
Determine quantity of transferable emissions
• Report the
– type,
– vintage, and
– quantity (in terms of Mt CO
2
e)
of transferable emissions units retired and sold in the target year, relevant
year of the target period, or over the target period
• Units that have been applied toward the goal are retired permanently and
cannot be used again by the retiring jurisdiction or any other jurisdiction
• Use sample GHG balance sheet to report and track units
Sample GHG
balance sheet
• Accountable emissions are the quantity of emissions and
removals that users apply toward achieving the goal, and may
take into account sales and retirement of transferable emissions
units and change in net land sector emissions, depending on
goal design.
Calculate accountable emissions
Calculate accountable emissions (no land use offsets)
With treatment of the land sector as an offset
Recalculate emissions
• To maintain the consistency of time-series data and enable
meaningful comparisons of emissions at the end of the goal period,
emissions and other values may need to be recalculated:
– Due to methodological changes
– Due to changes in emission drivers (for dynamic baselines)
• Report any emissions recalculations, including recalculations of base
year emissions, base year emissions intensity, baseline scenario
emissions, and allowable emissions or emissions intensity, and the
recalculated values alongside the original values
Example: the City of Seattle
• Accountable emissions
exceeded allowable emissions by 0.34 Mt
CO
2
e, and, thus Seattle’s goal was not achieved.
Chapter 11 Reporting
• Report the results of the assessment according to a standardized set
of reporting requirements
• Optional reporting information can further enhance transparency
• Four parts to the reporting requirements/template:
1. Design of the goal
2. Calculation of allowable emissions in the target year or period
3. Assessing progress during the goal period
4. Assessing goal achievement
Reporting
