Air Passenger Market Analysis

Air Passenger Monthly Analysis – January 2024 1

Air Passenger Market Analysis January 2024

Resilient industry-wide growth brings global traffic to near recovery

• January 2024 was a strong start for the global industry. Total revenue passenger-kilometers (RPK) increased 16.6%

year-on-year (YoY) in January, the industry was closer than ever to monthly recovery as traffic levels reached 99.6%

of 2019 levels. Harsh weather conditions observed in some countries of the northern hemisphere had limited impact

on global traffic numbers.

• Available seat-kilometers (ASKs) rose by 14.1% YoY, recovering to 99.5% of pre-pandemic capacity. Global

passenger load factor increased compared to the previous year and 2019, standing at 79.9%.

• Domestic traffic drove most of the positive developments observed at the industry level. Domestic RPK grew 6.7%

over pre-pandemic levels and 10.4% annually. Monitored economies saw diverse developments, PR China stood out

with traffic numbers 15.0% superior to the same month in 2019.

• International traffic maintained an upward trend, January RPK equaled 95.7% of pre-pandemic levels and increased

20.8% YoY. Over the year, Asia Pacific was once again the fastest growing region while North America continued to

lead the regions in terms of recovery to 2019 levels.

• Ticket sales increased significantly ahead of the Lunar New Year, indicating resilient demand for air travel overall and

possibly high traffic for the coming month of February.

Industry-wide traffic is now closer than ever to

monthly recovery

Industry-wide air passenger traffic, measured in

revenue passenger-kilometers (RPK), is now closer

than ever to achieving monthly recovery, standing just

0.4% under 2019 levels (Chart 1).

Chart 1 – Global air passengers, RPK, billions per

month

Growth momentum was sustained as the new year

began, total traffic increased 16.6% year-on-year

(YoY) and 1.2% month-on-month (MoM) in seasonally

adjusted terms, a strong performance considering

that the industry is now approaching the 2019

threshold. Industry seat capacity rose consistently

with passenger numbers. Available seat-kilometers

(ASKs), saw 14.1% annual growth and reached 99.5%

of pre-pandemic levels, as a result passenger load

factor (PLF) was 1.7 and 0.1 percentage points (ppt)

above the same month’s level in 2023 and 2019

respectively. Regions saw diverse but mostly positive

outcomes, in line with the observations at the global

scale (Chart 2).

Chart 2 – Total RPK growth by airline region of

registration, YoY% change vs. 2019

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Jan

2020

May Sep Jan

2021

May Sep Jan

2022

May Sep Jan

2023

May Sep Jan

2024

Actual Seasonally Adjusted

Sources: IATA Sustainability and Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics

1.0%

-10.3%

1.5%

3.2%

-2.9%

1.0%

-3.2%

5.9%

-6.7%

1.5%

2.0%

3.9%

5.7%

-0.4%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

Africa

Asia Pacific

Europe

Latin America

Middle East

North America

Industry

2024 - Jan 2023 - Dec

Sources: IATA Sustainability and Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics

Air passenger market in detail - January 2024

World

RPK ASK PLF (%-pt) RPK ASK PLF (%-pt)

PLF

TOTAL MARKET

100.0%

16.6% 14.1% 1.7% -0.4% -0.5% 0.1% 79.9%

International

60.1%

20.8% 20.9% 0.0% -4.3% -4.1% -0.2% 79.7%

Domestic

39.9%

10.4% 4.6% 4.2% 6.7% 5.8% 0.7% 80.2%

% of industry RPKs in 2023

January 2024 (% year-on-year)

January 2024 (% ch vs the same month in 2019)

Air Passenger Monthly Analysis – January 2024 2

The majority of airline regions have now exceeded

their 2019 benchmark on a monthly basis. North

America has sustained recovery for the longest time,

growing over pre-Covid numbers for 10 consecutive

months. Asia Pacific was the only region to not see

pre-pandemic levels of traffic, nevertheless sitting

only 6.7% under January 2019 numbers and still

experiencing stark growth as total RPK increased

31.8% YoY.

Chart 3 – Regional contribution to industry annual

total RPK growth

The region has been driving most of the industry-wide

growth over the past months, contributing to more

than half of the global RPK annual increase (Chart 3).

The ongoing recovery in that part of the globe will

continue to propel industry figures but also fuelling

further growth as key markets continue to expand.

Overall, great momentum subsists at the industry

scale with strong annual growth while total traffic is

closer than ever to 2019 levels.

Diverse outcomes on the domestic side…

Domestic traffic in monitored economies have seen

diverse developments. Domestic tourism in PR China

stimulated further expansion in air traffic, in

comparison to the same month in 2019 and 2023, RPK

increased 15.0% and 33.2% respectively (Chart 4).

Seat capacity in the country remained elevated

compared to the previous years, reflecting the

market’s expansion as well as the more frequent use

of widebody jets.

Traffic in India stood steady against pre-pandemic

levels in January while increasing 3.9% YoY. Japan

previously saw declining traffic in relation to the

broader economic situation and sentiment in the

country, in January RPK increased 3.1% MoM in

seasonally adjusted terms after 3 consecutive months

of decline. Nevertheless, traffic levels were only 4.3%

under pre-pandemic while growing 2.9% annually.

Passenger traffic in Australia underperformed in

January. While RPK were 12.7% under pre-Covid, the

country saw 5.3% YoY growth. Passenger load factor

was 5.7ppt inferior in contrast to the same month in

2019.

Chart 4 – Domestic RPK growth by market, YoY%

change vs. 2019

US domestic traffic saw a slight decline of 2.2% MoM

in seasonally adjusted terms, explained by the harsh

winter weather conditions some parts of the country

experienced over the month. Despite those events,

traffic growth continued at a solid rate of 3.1% YoY and

5.9% against pre-pandemic. In Brazil domestic growth

stagnated as RPK increased by a modest 0.2% YoY. As

opposed to 2019 numbers, the country’s passenger

numbers also trended sideways, extending the trend

observed over the past year (Chart 4).

…while international traffic recovery remains on track

Industry-wide RPK growth remained on track as the

new year started, making an additional step towards

recovery. Passenger traffic grew 20.8% YoY and

apace MoM with 1.2% growth in seasonally adjusted

terms. Airlines in all regions have seen growth over the

year led by Asia Pacific where international RPK

increased 45.4% YoY. Despite tailing the other regions

in terms of recovery, Asia Pacific RPK climbed rapidly

towards 2019 levels in January, reaching 83.7% (Chart

5).

Chart 5 – International RPK growth by airline region of

registration, YoY% change versus 2019

69.4%

59.4%

54.1%

46.6%

39.2%

31.5%

26.8%

28.3%

30.1%

30.8%

29.1%

24.4%

16.6%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

2023 2024

Africa

Asia Pacific

Europe

Latin America

Middle East

North America

Industry YoY% change

Sources: IATA Sustainability and Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics

-7.6%

-4.0%

6.6%

-8.3%

8.4%

-0.6%

-12.7%

-2.8%

3.3%

-4.3%

15.0%

5.9%

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

Australia

Brazil

India

Japan

PR China

United States

2024 - Jan 2023 - Dec

Sources: IATA Sustainability and Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics

-2.6%

-19.7%

0.3%

1.7%

-3.1%

5.5%

-6.1%

2.9%

-16.3%

-0.4%

-2.0%

3.7%

6.4%

-4.3%

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

Africa

Asia Pacific

Europe

Latin America

Middle East

North America

Industry

2024 - Jan 2023 - Dec

Sources: IATA Sustainability and Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics

Air Passenger Monthly Analysis – January 2024 3

Europe and Latin America as well as the Middle East

also maintained a positive direction as international

traffic trended around pre-pandemic numbers in

January. Africa saw 2.9% growth over January 2019,

achieving monthly recovery for the first time since the

initial impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. North

American carriers still lead the industry as these

outperform 2019 international passenger numbers by

6.4%.

International traffic in major route areas largely

reflected the performance of airlines in different

regions. Passenger flows over the North Atlantic

between North America and Europe still boast

outstanding results compared to major traffic lanes,

RPK were 6.5% above pre-pandemic in January. This

route area has now fully recovered and continues to

expand as January marked the 13th consecutive

month of growth over 2019 levels (Chart 6). Route

areas between the Americas, Europe and the Middle

East have been leading in outperforming 2019 levels

across the board. The ramp up of international

operations from and to the Asia Pacific region has

accelerated in January 2024 compared to the

previous month (Chart 6), with the exception of the

Asia – North America route area where geopolitical

tensions have impacted the complete return of air

services between PR China and the US.

Chart 6 – International RPK, YoY% change vs. 2019 –

Top 10 route areas in 2019

Indeed, the comeback of international traffic from and

to Asia Pacific is still contrasted, mirroring the

different challenges that have emerged over the past

recent years. While nearly all traffic lanes have seen

considerable upturn, traffic from and to the most

traffic dense regions (Asia Pacific itself, North

America, and Europe) lagged in recovery compared to

other destinations. As of January 2024, the smaller

markets had recovered the quickest, in particular the

Asia – Middle East lane had exceeded 2019 levels by

0.4% (Chart 7).

Chart 7 – International RPK on major Asia Pacific

traffic lanes, %share of 2019

Seasonal events pushed ticket sales to new highs

Demand for air travel stood high as the year started

compared to the same period in 2019. Following a

slight slowdown around Jan 8 2024, total ticket sales

increased gradually to peak shortly ahead of the Lunar

New Year. That increase was mostly driven by

domestic travel ticket sales which remained elevated

against pre-pandemic levels throughout that whole

period (Chart 8). Increased activity in the PR China

domestic market over the past months explain most of

these developments as further growth and even

higher traffic levels can be expected in this major

market around that holiday period. International ticket

sales have also seen positive results coincidently with

recent developments on the domestic side. Overall,

ticket sales continue to indicate resilient demand for

air travel on both market segments globally.

Chart 8 – Ticket sales by purchase date, 7-day moving

average - % share of 2019 levels

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

20%

Jan

2020

May Sep Jan

2021

May Sep Jan

2022

May Sep Jan

2023

May Sep Jan

2024

Africa - Europe

Asia - North America

Asia - Southwest Pacific

Europe - Asia

Europe - Central America / Caribbean

Europe - Middle East

Europe - North America

Middle East - Asia

Within Asia

Within Europe

Sources: IATA Sustainability and Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics

5.0%

20.9%

15.7%

38.4%

9.0%

12.6%

5.3%

50.3%

61.2%

56.4%

86.2%

59.6%

79.8%

48.0%

82.0%

85.4%

72.6%

100.4%

93.7%

92.2%

79.5%

Within Asia Asia -

Europe

Asia - North

America

Asia -

Middle East

Asia -

Southwest

Pacific

Americas -

Southwest

Pacific

Africa - Asia

Jan - 2022 Jan - 2023 Jan - 2024

Sources: IATA Sustainability and Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

Domestic International Total

Sources: IATA Sustainability and Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics

Air Passenger Monthly Analysis – January 2024 4

IATA Sustainability & Economics

economics@iata.org

6 March 2024

Air passenger market in detail - January 2024

World

RPK ASK PLF (%-pt) RPK ASK PLF (%-pt)

PLF

TOTAL MARKET

100.0%

16.6% 14.1% 1.7% -0.4% -0.5% 0.1% 79.9%

Africa

2.1%

18.1% 19.9% -1.1% 5.9% 2.5% 2.3% 73.1%

Asia Pacific

31.7%

31.8% 26.6% 3.2% -6.7% -6.1% -0.6% 80.8%

Europe

27.1%

10.0% 9.6% 0.3% 1.5% 3.7% -1.7% 78.2%

Latin America

5.5%

9.9% 5.5% 3.4% 2.0% -1.1% 2.6% 85.0%

Middle East

9.4%

16.2% 15.3% 0.6% 3.9% -3.1% 5.4% 79.9%

North America

24.2%

6.0% 4.1% 1.5% 5.7% 5.3% 0.2% 79.9%

International

60.1%

20.8% 20.9% 0.0% -4.3% -4.1% -0.2% 79.7%

Africa

1.8%

18.5% 19.2% -0.4% 2.9% -0.7% 2.6% 73.3%

Asia Pacific

14.7%

45.4% 48.1% -1.5% -16.3% -17.0% 0.6% 82.6%

Europe

23.6%

10.8% 10.7% 0.1% -0.4% 3.8% -3.3% 77.3%

Latin America

2.7%

17.9% 13.2% 3.4% -2.0% -6.0% 3.5% 86.0%

Middle East

9.1%

16.2% 15.7% 0.4% 3.7% -3.0% 5.2% 79.9%

North America

8.1%

12.3% 13.7% -1.0% 6.4% 8.0% -1.3% 79.4%

Domestic

39.9%

10.4% 4.6% 4.2% 6.7% 5.8% 0.7% 80.2%

Dom. Australia

0.8%

5.3% 6.3% -0.7% -12.7% -5.9% -5.7% 72.4%

Domestic Brazil

1.2%

0.2% -1.0% 1.0% -2.8% -1.8% -0.8% 83.2%

Dom. China P.R.

11.2%

33.2% 19.2% 8.4% 15.0% 17.8% -1.9% 80.2%

Domestic India

1.8%

3.9% -1.0% 4.2% 3.3% -0.1% 2.9% 88.9%

Domestic Japan

1.1%

2.9% -2.9% 3.8% -4.3% -6.9% 1.9% 68.7%

Domestic US

15.4%

3.1% -0.5% 2.8% 5.9% 5.0% 0.7% 79.8%

% of industry RPKs in 2023

Note: the six domestic passenger markets for w hich broken-dow n data are available account for approximately 31.4% of global total RPKs and 78.8% of total domestic RPKs

January 2024 (% year-on-year)

January 2024 (% ch vs the same month in 2019)

Note: The total industry and regional growth rates are based on a constant sample of airlines combining reported data and estimates for missing observations. Airline traffic is allocated according

to the region in w hich the carrier is registered; it should not be considered as regional traffic.

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