Air Passenger Monthly Analysis – February 2024 1
Air Passenger Market Analysis February 2024
Global air traffic surpasses pre-pandemic levels in February
• In February 2024, the airline industry achieved full recovery in total passenger traffic, surpassing the 2019 threshold
by 5.7%. Annual growth in Revenue Passenger-Kilometers (RPK) reached 21.5% year-on-year (YoY). Passenger load
factors (PLF) improved in comparison to the previous year and settled in the vicinity of pre-pandemic levels.
• Domestic traffic grew 13.7% over 2019 levels and 15.0% over the year, reflecting the strong performance of all major
markets as well as the intense travel period around the Lunar New Year that pushed PR China domestic traffic to new
highs (+31.5% YoY).
• International traffic was 0.9% higher than February 2019 figures, while annual growth reached an impressive 26.3%.
Asia Pacific continued to lead the regions in terms of growth, as the comeback of international travel from and to that
region continued. The markets which had experienced an earlier rebound also displayed solid traffic growth this
month.
• Ahead of the Lunar New Year, ticket sales significantly increased, for both domestic and international travel. This peak
in demand was followed by a brief slowdown in ticket purchases. Over the month of March, ticket sales stabilized,
indicating resilient demand for air travel.
Industry-wide traffic surpassed pre-pandemic levels
in February
Industry-wide air passenger traffic, measured in
revenue passenger-kilometers (RPK), surpassed 2019
levels in February 2024, marking the first occurrence
of full global recovery in both, domestic and
international, travel segments (Chart 1).
Chart 1 – Global air passengers, RPK, billions per
month
Total RPK were 5.7% higher than February 2019
figures, while international and domestic traffic saw
0.9% and 13.7% growth over the same period,
respectively. Passenger load factors in all segments
were also close to pre-Covid levels, indicating the
return of available seat supply and passenger demand
on a global scale. Compared to the previous year, total
traffic increased by 21.5%. A strong recovery in all
regions and important markets as well as a particularly
busy month of February contributed to this outcome.
Indeed, the number of ticket sales peaked in late
January to early February, indicating elevated demand
for air travel ahead of the key Lunar New Year period in
Asia Pacific and beyond (Chart 2).
Chart 2 – Ticket sales by purchase date, 7-day moving
average – YoY%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Jan
2019
May Sep Jan
2020
May Sep Jan
2021
May Sep Jan
2022
May Sep Jan
2023
May Sep Jan
2024
Billions
Actual Seasonally Adjusted
Sources: IATA Sustainability and Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Domestic International Total
Sources: IATA Sustainability and Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics
Air passenger market in detail - February 2024
World
share
1
RPK ASK PLF (%-pt) RPK ASK PLF (%-pt)
PLF
TOTAL MARKET
100.0%
21.5% 18.7% 1.9% 5.7% 5.8% -0.1% 80.6%
International
60.1%
26.3% 25.5% 0.5% 0.9% 1.2% -0.3% 79.3%
Domestic
39.9%
15.0% 9.4% 4.0% 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 82.6%
1
% of industry RPKs in 2023
February 2024 (% year-on-year)
February 2024 (% ch vs the same month in 2019)
Air Passenger Monthly Analysis – February 2024 2
During the event, domestic ticket sales contracted
compared to the previous year, while sales for
international travel remained higher than in 2023. Over
the month of March, ticket sales for both travel
segments remained elevated compared to the
previous year while trending roughly sideways,
indicating consistent high demand for air travel
following the Lunar New Year break.
Chart 3 – Regional contribution to industry annual
total RPK growth
The 21.5% uptick in year-on-year (YoY) growth of
Industry-wide passenger traffic in February came
after 4 months of decline. Asia Pacific was once again
the region to bring the largest contribution to the
industry’s growth, explained by high activity in the PR
China domestic market as well as the comeback of
international traffic from Asia (Chart 3).
Domestic traffic growth accelerated in February…
Chart 4 – Domestic RPK growth by market, YoY%
At the industry level, domestic traffic grew 15.0% YoY,
reflecting the improvements in all major markets as
well as the record-breaking traffic levels in PR China.
Indeed, passenger flows within the country increased
by 35.1% YoY in February 2024 with the highest
figures in two decades for that particular month. On
the other hand, domestic tourism continued to drive
traffic growth in PR China, and seat capacity levels
reinforced by the more frequent use of widebody
aircraft (Chart 4).
Japan domestic RPK climbed by 9.1% YoY,
accelerating substantially compared to the previous
month. India saw a stable rise in RPK in February with
5.3% annual growth. Passenger numbers in Australia
increased by 14.9% YoY in February. In all these
markets, passenger load factors were above the
previous year.
The US and Brazil experienced 5.7% and 3.2% YoY
growth in domestic traffic, respectively. For both
markets, annual growth rates were resilient and higher
than the pre-pandemic average of 2019 (Chart 4).
…while international traffic growth remained solid
Industry-wide international RPK reached pre-Covid
levels in February while displaying uninterrupted
momentum with 26.3% annual growth (Chart 5). This
was supported by positive results across all regions,
and higher YoY growth rates compared to the
previous month. Also, all regions except Asia Pacific
and Europe surpassed pre-pandemic levels in RPK. In
these two regions, total recovery in international
traffic is now imminent as Asia Pacific RPK stood 7.0%
below 2019 levels in February and Europe was down
only 0.2%. Annual growth ranged from 15.9% in
Europe to 53.2% for Asia Pacific carriers (Chart 5).
Asia Pacific carriers naturally took the lead in annual
growth as international traffic in the region is lagging
other geographic areas in the post-pandemic
recovery.
Chart 5 – International RPK growth by airline region of
registration, YoY%
In line with those developments, the main route areas
around the Asia Pacific region did not yet achieve
complete recovery to 2019 levels but displayed the
highest annual growth rates (Chart 6). Traffic Within
Asia experienced 68.7% increase in RPK, the highest
among the top ten route areas in 2019. Passenger
flows inside the wider Asia Pacific region took off as
well, as RPK from Asia to the Southwest Pacific grew
60.7% YoY.
Sources: IATA Sustainability and Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics
9.0%
0.1%
4.2%
2.9%
33.2%
3.5%
10.7%
14.9%
3.2%
5.3%
9.1%
35.1%
5.7%
15.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Australia
Brazil
India
Japan
PR China
United States
Industry
2024 - Feb 2024 - Jan
Sources: IATA Sustainability and Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics
19.3%
45.8%
10.5%
17.7%
16.2%
12.4%
20.8%
20.7%
53.2%
15.9%
21.0%
19.7%
16.0%
26.3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Africa
Asia Pacific
Europe
Latin
America
Middle East
North
America
Industry
2024 - Feb 2024 - Jan
Sources: IATA Sustainability and Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics
Air Passenger Monthly Analysis – February 2024 3
In contrast, international passenger numbers on the
Europe – North America, Europe – Central America /
Caribbean and Africa – Europe route areas saw the
lowest growth, in line with the early recovery those
markets experienced over the past two years.
Nevertheless, these routes observed resilient growth
figures that indicate consistent expansion.
Between Europe and Asia, international RPK rose by
43.9% YoY while the Europe – Middle East route area
saw 20.1% growth. While the war in Ukraine continues
to impact air space capacity, air traffic still
experiences resilient demand in these markets.
Chart 6 – International RPK, YoY% – Top 10 route
areas in 2019
4.7%
28.4%
57.4%
40.5%
6.4%
14.5%
5.2%
19.4%
63.8%
9.3%
10.6%
34.2%
60.7%
43.9%
6.2%
20.1%
7.3%
19.5%
68.7%
12.7%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Africa - Europe
Asia - North America
Asia - Southwest Pacific
Europe - Asia
Europe - Central America / Caribbean
Europe - Middle East
Europe - North America
Middle East - Asia
Within Asia
Within Europe
2024 - Feb 2024 - Jan
Sources: IATA Sustainability and Economics, IATA Monthly Statistics
Air Passenger Monthly Analysis – February 2024 4
IATA Sustainability & Economics
economics@iata.org
3 April 2024
Air passenger market in detail - February 2024
World
share
1
RPK ASK PLF (%-pt) PLF (level) RPK ASK PLF (%-pt) PLF (level)
TOTAL MARKET
100.0%
21.5% 18.7% 1.9% 80.6% 19.0% 16.4% 1.8% 80.2%
Africa
2.1%
22.5% 24.3% -1.1% 74.4% 20.8% 22.1% -0.8% 74.0%
Asia Pacific
31.7%
37.8% 30.1% 4.7% 84.4% 35.0% 28.4% 4.0% 82.6%
Europe
27.1%
14.8% 14.6% 0.2% 76.1% 12.1% 11.9% 0.1% 77.1%
Latin America
5.5%
13.0% 10.8% 1.6% 82.7% 11.3% 7.9% 2.5% 83.9%
Middle East
9.4%
19.7% 18.8% 0.6% 80.8% 17.9% 17.0% 0.6% 80.4%
North America
24.2%
8.9% 8.8% 0.0% 79.5% 7.6% 6.6% 0.8% 79.7%
International
60.1%
26.3% 25.5% 0.5% 79.3% 23.4% 23.1% 0.2% 79.5%
Africa
1.8%
20.7% 22.1% -0.8% 74.0% 20.0% 20.6% -0.4% 73.8%
Asia Pacific
14.7%
53.2% 52.1% 0.6% 84.9% 49.4% 50.2% -0.4% 83.8%
Europe
23.6%
15.9% 16.0% 0.0% 74.7% 13.0% 13.1% -0.1% 76.0%
Latin America
2.7%
21.0% 18.6% 1.7% 84.2% 19.2% 15.6% 2.6% 85.2%
Middle East
9.1%
19.7% 19.1% 0.4% 80.8% 17.9% 17.3% 0.4% 80.3%
North America
8.1%
16.0% 17.6% -1.1% 77.7% 14.1% 15.7% -1.1% 78.6%
Domestic
39.9%
15.0% 9.4% 4.0% 82.6% 12.8% 7.1% 4.1% 81.4%
Dom. Australia
0.8%
14.9% 9.1% 3.7% 73.4% 11.9% 9.0% 1.9% 73.3%
Domestic Brazil
1.2%
3.2% 5.5% -1.7% 77.5% 1.5% 1.8% -0.3% 80.5%
Dom. China P.R.
11.2%
35.1% 20.5% 9.2% 84.9% 34.2% 19.8% 8.8% 82.6%
Domestic India
1.8%
5.3% 4.8% 0.5% 88.8% 4.8% 1.9% 2.4% 88.9%
Domestic Japan
1.1%
9.1% 0.9% 5.9% 79.0% 6.1% -1.1% 5.0% 73.8%
Domestic US
15.4%
5.7% 4.8% 0.7% 80.2% 4.6% 2.4% 1.7% 80.0%
1
% of industry RPKs in 2023
February 2024 (% year-to-date)
February 2024 (% year-on-year)
Note: the six domestic passenger markets for w hich broken-dow n data are available account for approximately 31.4% of global total RPKs and 78.8% of total domestic RPKs
Note: The total industry and regional grow th rates are based on a constant sample of airlines combining reported data and estimates for missing observations. Airline traffic is allocated according to the region in
w hich the carrier is registered; it should not be considered as regional traffic.
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